Vancouver Homes Now in a Balanced to Buyer-Friendly State

The Vancouver housing market is going through a major change, creating fresh opportunities for buyers and sellers. Our daily interactions with clients give us firsthand insight into how these market changes shape property decisions throughout the region.

Sales trends and year-over-year changes

Vancouver's real estate activity has cooled down compared to previous years. October 2025 saw 2,255 home sales, a 14.3% drop from October 2024. These numbers are 14.5% lower than the 10-year seasonal average. The market continues to cool since its 2021 peak. Year-end numbers for 2023 dropped 10.3% from 2022 and 41.5% from 2021.

Sales numbers only tell part of the story. While transactions slowed down, available listings moved up. By late 2025, active listings reached 16,393 properties, rising 13.2% from last year. Today's inventory stands 35.9% above the 10-year average. Buyers now have more choices than they've seen in years.

Shift from seller's to buyer's market

Vancouver's real estate market now favors buyers after years of seller dominance. The sales-to-active listings ratio, which shows market direction, sits at 14.2%. This approaches levels that often signal price drops. Market experts say prices tend to fall when this ratio stays below 12%.

Detached homes show this change clearly. This segment has become a buyer's market with a 9.9% ratio. Prices reflect this shift across all property types. The composite benchmark price dropped to CAD 1,577,980.43, falling 3.4% from last year. Detached home prices decreased 4.3%, while condo prices fell 5.1%.

What a balanced market means for buyers and sellers

Our client interactions reveal new patterns in how deals get done. Balanced market conditions create fair opportunities for everyone. Buyers enjoy more choices, can take time deciding, and have better negotiating power, especially for detached and luxury homes.

Sellers need to price their homes based on current market values rather than wishful thinking. Well-priced properties still sell, though they take longer than during the market peak. We tell sellers to prepare their properties well and keep their expectations realistic.

This market balance creates better outcomes for everyone. It removes extreme price swings while ensuring fair returns for well-positioned properties. We believe this creates a healthier long-term environment for Vancouver's housing market.

Inventory and Supply Dynamics

The local real estate marketplace has seen dramatic changes in supply dynamics these past few months. Our direct work with buyers and sellers has given us a clear view of how changing inventory levels are altering Vancouver's housing scene.

Active listings and new supply levels

The Metro Vancouver market now shows some of the highest inventory levels in years. Active listings hit 16,393 properties by October 2025. This number shows a 13.2% rise compared to last year. The strong inventory sits 36% above the long-term average. These numbers paint a different picture from what we've seen lately. The market keeps getting new properties, with 5,438 listings added in October alone. While this matches last year's numbers, it stands 16.3% above the 10-year seasonal average.

Impact of high inventory on house prices Vancouver

The surge in available homes has naturally affected Vancouver's home prices in all categories. The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at just 14.2%. This moves the market closer to a zone that usually points to price drops. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price has dropped to $1,577,980.43—showing a 3.4% decrease from October 2024. Our daily client meetings reveal different effects by property type. Detached homes show a 4.3% yearly price drop, attached homes 3.8%, and apartments face the largest decline at 5.1%. Many sellers now adjust their expectations as homes take longer to sell.

Developer slowdown and presale project delays

The market's long-term health faces a challenge with an unprecedented development slowdown. The presale market has nearly stopped, with only 35 projects launched last year—40% below the five-year average. Sales have dropped even more sharply. Less than 400 presale units sold, showing an amazing 85% drop from usual numbers. About 4,800 units across Metro Vancouver remain unsold or empty, including 2,500 finished condos with no occupants. Investor interest in new presales has fallen from nearly 50% in 2021-22 to just 7% in 2025. Developers now quietly pause projects, cut prices, or offer big incentives. This creates both challenges and opportunities for clients in this changing market.

Price Trends Across Property Types

We have seen dramatic changes in pricing trends for properties of all types as Vancouver realtors. The market now favors buyers, and each segment reacts differently to current economic conditions.

Detached homes: price drops and affordability

House prices fell below the CAD 2.70 million psychological barrier set in early 2024. The standard price sits at CAD 2.72 million, showing a 4.8% year-over-year decline. Price reductions haven't solved the biggest problem - affordability for local buyers. As I wrote in my discussions with clients, Vancouver's detached market doesn't match local income levels. Notwithstanding that, buyers can now make bold offers, especially on properties that have stayed on the market longer.

Condo apartments: investor pressure and rental shifts

Multiple pressures affect the condominium market right now. Standard prices dropped to CAD 1.02 million, a 4.4% decrease year-over-year. More than that, Metro Vancouver has 2,500 to 3,500 unsold condos, creating what experts call "shadow inventory." Investors with rental properties face a tough squeeze from falling property values and higher mortgage payments as 2020/21 mortgages renew at increased rates.

Townhouses: demand from retirees and families

Townhouses have held up better during the market correction. The standard price is around CAD 1.50 million, with a 3.5% drop year-over-year. This segment attracts retirees who want to downsize from larger detached properties and families looking for cheaper alternatives to single-family homes.

Economic and Policy Influences on the Market

Our team's daily work in Vancouver's real estate market shows how economic policies affect buyer and seller decisions. Interest rates have affected affordability by a lot. The Bank of Canada's rate cut to 2.5% has given homeowners quick relief, and variable-rate mortgage holders now save about CAD 163 monthly. Vancouver's affordability has improved for six straight quarters, and RBC's total affordability measure dropped to 53.6% in Q2 2025 from its peak of 63.5% in late 2023.

Zoning reforms have reshaped the development scene completely. Vancouver City Council's approval of new apartment zones in Broadway and Cambie Corridor has cut about 12 months from approval processes. These zones now include low-rise (4-8 storeys), mid-rise (12 storeys), and high-rise (20-22 storeys) designations. Most new projects must include affordable housing components, and developers say they face a "perfect storm" - high interest rates, construction costs, and rules that just need 20% below-market housing.

The government's foreign buyer ban, which started in 2023 and continues until 2027, hasn't changed the market much. Like its predecessor, the 15% foreign buyers tax, neighborhoods with more foreign buyers saw house prices fall by 6% more than areas with fewer foreign buyers. This policy remains important for discussion, but it hasn't changed Vancouver's overall market patterns.

Future Predictions

Our team sees Vancouver's property landscape staying balanced and buyer-friendly through 2026. The market shows signs of stabilizing after recent price drops, and we expect modest growth as interest rates stay low.

The numbers paint an interesting picture for first-time buyers. Vancouver home prices might climb by 3.0% in 2026, while residential sales could jump 6.3%. TD Economics takes a more cautious stance nationally, predicting just a 1.5% price increase. Remember that these are average figures - each neighborhood and property type tells its own story.

The detached home market leads the recovery charge right now. This creates great opportunities for move-up buyers who can take advantage of price differences between property tiers.

Some economic storm clouds loom on the horizon. U.S. trade tensions might shake consumer confidence, and lower immigration targets could slow population growth.

Here's a wake-up call for long-term investors: Vancouver's median home prices could hit CAD 3.90M by 2032 without major supply increases. That's why we tell our clients that today's balanced market offers solid entry points if you plan to own for the long haul.

Key Takeaways

Vancouver's housing market has shifted from seller-dominated to balanced/buyer-friendly conditions, creating new opportunities for strategic property decisions.

• Market has flipped to favor buyers: Sales-to-active listings ratio at 14.2% with inventory 36% above 10-year average, giving buyers more selection and negotiating power.

• Prices declining across all property types: Composite benchmark price down 3.4% year-over-year, with detached homes (-4.3%) and condos (-5.1%) seeing steepest drops.

• Interest rate cuts improving affordability: Bank of Canada's 2.5% rate saves variable mortgage holders $163 monthly, with affordability improving for six consecutive quarters.

• Development pipeline severely constrained: Presale launches down 40% with only 35 new projects, while 2,500+ completed condos sit unsold, signaling future supply challenges.

• 2026 outlook cautiously optimistic: Modest price growth (1.5-3%) expected as market stabilizes, but long-term affordability concerns persist with potential median prices reaching $3.9M by 2032.

This balanced market creates healthier conditions for sustainable transactions, removing extreme volatility while offering fair opportunities for properly positioned buyers and sellers.