Historic Shift: Vancouver Real Estate Favors Buyers in 2026

The Greater Vancouver real estate market changed completely in 2025. This change marks a historic shift in market patterns we haven't seen in decades. The region saw just 23,800 home sales last year, which is the lowest annual total this century. Sales dropped 25% below the 10-year annual average. The seller's market that dominated previous years has come to an end.

The big changes stem from economic uncertainty and ongoing worries about U.S. tariffs that cooled buyer interest. The year started with high hopes, but sales stayed low even when interest rates held steady and more homes came on the market. Sellers flooded the market with properties - over 65,000 listings in 2025. That's 8.2% more than the year before.

This gap between buyers and sellers has created the best chance for first-time buyers in years. They now have plenty of homes to choose from and prices are coming down, which gives them more power when negotiating deals. The market shift could work well for areas like Surrey and Langley, where the new SkyTrain extension is coming.

The market's transformation might mean trouble down the road. British Columbia's housing market could repeat the difficult boom-and-bust pattern that followed the 2008 recession. New home construction has slowed as developers face more project cancelations, bankruptcies, and money problems after pre-sales fell apart in 2025.

Industry experts still see hope for recovery. Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist of the B.C. Real Estate Association, thinks the market will bounce back in 2026. He points to built-up demand and possible solutions to trade issues as key factors. For now, buyers have the best position they've had in Vancouver for years, while sellers must adapt to a market that favors buyers.

Buyers Regain Leverage as Sales Hit Historic Lows

Metro Vancouver's real estate market showed historic results in 2025 that gave buyers the upper hand for the first time in years. These market conditions create amazing opportunities for homebuyers as we enter 2026.

2025 closes with lowest sales in over two decades

Metro Vancouver wrapped up the year with about 23,800 residential sales, hitting the lowest annual total in more than 20 years. Sales dropped 10.4% compared to 2024 and fell almost 25% below the 10-year annual average. The market slowdown proved exceptional since even during the 2008 financial crisis, sales topped 24,000 properties. Andrew Lis, chief economist for Greater Vancouver Realtors, called 2025 "one for the history books", pointing to the dramatic changes in activity levels.

High inventory levels change market dynamics

While sales remained slow, sellers stayed busy throughout 2025. MLS listings reached 65,335 properties, growing 8.2% from 2024 and rising 13.1% above the region's 10-year total annual average. The year set a new record with the highest listing total since the mid-1990s. It beat the previous high from 2008 by more than 1,000 listings. Properties now take much longer to sell, with average "days on market" reaching higher levels than the previous five years. Buyers have plenty of choices with roughly 12,550 homes on the market as 2026 begins—about 35% more than the 10-year seasonal average.

Sales-to-listing ratios confirm buyer's market conditions

The sales-to-active listings ratio, a key market indicator, stayed between 11-13% through late 2025. This matters because analysts see ratios below 12% as signs of a buyer's market. Buyers now have more negotiating power and time to make decisions without competing offer pressure. The balanced market typically ranges from 12% to 20%, showing that Vancouver's real estate market clearly favors buyers. This increased leverage and moderating prices across property types make 2026 an ideal time for entering Vancouver's housing market.

Prices Soften Across Property Types in Metro Vancouver

The Vancouver real estate market shows price drops in homes of all types, with each property category experiencing different levels of decline.

Detached homes see modest declines

Home values for single-family properties have slowly adjusted throughout 2025. BC Assessment data shows Vancouver detached homes dropped about 5% from CAD 3.07 million to CAD 2.91 million. The benchmark price for detached homes reached CAD 2,619,238.51 in December 2025, which is 5.3% lower than last year. Royal LePage expects prices to drop another 5% to CAD 2,244,584.85 by late 2026.

Condo prices fall sharply amid oversupply

Condominiums face bigger price drops because of inventory issues. Apartment prices fell 11% to CAD 1,003,057.72 compared to last year, with a sharp 9% decline in just one month. Metro Vancouver now has about 2,500 unsold new condos—twice as many as last year. Developers now offer buyer incentives like free parking, storage lockers, and cash rebates at completion.

Benchmark prices drop below 2022 peak

The composite benchmark price for Metro Vancouver homes reached CAD 1,553,317.95 in December 2025, showing a 4.5% yearly decrease. Average prices have stayed flat since 2023 but are now 13% lower than the early 2022 peak. This adjustment comes after an amazing twenty-year period when Vancouver home prices jumped 175% between 2005 and 2025. Most experts predict small price drops will continue before the market stabilizes, which creates good opportunities for new buyers.

New Construction Slows as Developers Face Financing Hurdles

Banks have tightened their grip on Vancouver's development sector. New construction has ground to a halt throughout the region. Developers face exceptional challenges to secure funds as pre-sales collapse in this uncertain economy.

Pre-sale collapse stalls multi-family projects

The financing model for multi-family developments fell apart in 2025. Banks just need developers to sell 65-70% of a project's homes during pre-sales to access full construction loans. Most launches are nowhere near these thresholds. The second quarter of 2025 showed 16,589 presale units on the market, and more than 61% sit in the "danger zone" where sales lag behind the 70% targets. Developers have no choice except to cancel projects or give back deposits to earlier buyers. The number of court-ordered land sales has doubled, and 22% of land transactions over $6.97 million came from insolvencies.

Rental housing completions increase competition

The market sees a flood of completed rental projects right as construction stops. Residential rents dropped significantly in 2025 because new purpose-built rental housing projects reached completion. Vancouver hit about 90% of its housing target with 4,850 net new homes completed. Rentals made up 86% (4,150) of these completions. Rental completions jumped 60% from last year, which created the strongest downward pressure on rents in years.

Construction starts decline in key regions

British Columbia's construction activity has weakened significantly. Housing starts dropped in Vancouver (3.3%), Nanaimo (56.5%), Kelowna (31.4%), and Kamloops (30.0%). Vancouver's housing construction has slowed compared to 2024, heading toward its lowest number of housing starts in decades. This slowdown creates an interesting situation - today's market benefits buyers, but the sharp drop in new projects will lead to supply shortages when demand returns.

Forecasts Suggest Gradual Recovery by 2027

Housing experts predict a recovery for the vancouver real estate market starting in 2026 after years of declining sales. This gradual rebound should create a more balanced environment for both buyers and sellers.

BCREA projects 12% sales rebound in 2026

The British Columbia Real Estate Association's 2026 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update has released optimistic projections. MLS residential sales across BC will increase by 12% to 78,690 units this year. Sales should climb an additional 4.8% to reach 82,450 units in 2027. BCREA's Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson states, "despite some resilience against global uncertainty, both the economy and housing market struggled through 2025". The province's inventory has reached its highest level in over a decade with about 40,000 homes for sale.

Pent-up demand expected to return

Buyers who stayed on the sidelines throughout 2025 represent a strong pent-up demand that will drive the predicted recovery. Rennie & Associates predicts vancouver bc real estate market will see approximately 38,000 total sales during 2026. This marks a reversal from the downward trend that saw transactions drop from 70,619 in 2021 to 35,236 in 2025. RBC Economics has confirmed that fall 2025 developments align with expectations of a gradual recovery in 2026.

Mortgage rate stability may support affordability

Stable mortgage rates will play a significant role in the housing market bc recovery. Buyers will see better affordability conditions compared to recent years as rates hold steady throughout 2026. TD Economics considers interest rates as "more of a neutral factor for the outlook in 2026". First-time homebuyers will benefit most from stable financing costs and moderate price growth. BCREA predicts BC's average prices will rise just 3% to CAD 1,369,394.41 in 2026.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026

The Vancouver housing market in 2026 gives patient buyers several advantages. Market conditions now present a rare chance with reduced prices, steady borrowing costs, and plenty of available homes. The market has very little competition for first-time homebuyers since many investors have left. These conditions haven't been seen in years.

Buyers who are ready now can benefit from the price difference between selling their current home and buying a new one. More buyers are making subject-to-sale offers. They sell homes at CAD 1,114,688.16 and buy properties between CAD 1,811,368.26 and CAD 2,090,040.30. Retirees can also benefit by selling properties at CAD 2,090,040.30 and buying homes between CAD 1,114,688.16 and CAD 1,393,360.20. This helps them make the most of their equity.

Sellers should expect their homes to take longer to sell. Prices might be lower than the 2021-2022 peak. Royal LePage predicts Greater Vancouver's home prices could drop about 3.5% through 2026.

Real Estate Association's Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson expects sales to return to normal levels in 2026. The market might see 26,000-28,000 transactions. Let Paul Eviston - realtor help you make smart choices in these changing market conditions, whether you plan to buy or sell in 2026's buyer-friendly market.

Key Takeaways

Vancouver's real estate market has undergone a historic transformation in 2025, creating unprecedented opportunities for buyers entering 2026. Here are the essential insights from this market shift:

• Buyers gain unprecedented leverage - Sales hit a 20-year low at 23,800 transactions while listings surged 8.2%, creating ideal negotiating conditions for purchasers.

• Prices decline across all property types - Detached homes dropped 5% and condos fell 11% year-over-year, with benchmark prices sitting 13% below 2022 peaks.

• Construction slowdown creates future supply concerns - Developer financing challenges and pre-sale collapses have stalled new projects, potentially limiting inventory when demand returns.

• Recovery expected by 2027 - Industry experts forecast 12% sales growth in 2026 driven by pent-up demand and stable mortgage rates, suggesting current buyer advantages are temporary.

• First-time buyers face lowest competition in years - With investors exiting and abundant inventory available, entry-level purchasers have the best opportunity in decades to enter Vancouver's market.

This market transformation represents a rare window for buyers to capitalize on favorable conditions before the anticipated recovery restores balance between supply and demand.